- Above the Mantel
- Posts
- Prediction Markets Coming for Collectibles: Are Sports Cards Next?
Prediction Markets Coming for Collectibles: Are Sports Cards Next?
Plus Final Days to Vote for The Mantel Hobby Awards
Evan Parker
November 20, 2025
Collectors! Tomorrow is the final day to vote for The Mantel Hobby Awards, and a bunch of the categories are neck and neck. To curry favor before the polls close, nominees are pulling out all of the stops, and every Mantel member who votes will be eligible to win an ultra-exclusive ghostwrite x The Mantel Hobby Awards trophy. Winners will be announced during our award show stream in mid-December.
I know I’m biased, but I love the variety of nominees up for Mantel Hobby Awards, representing all corners of the industry, including people and businesses focused on both the purists and the investors.
Those two worlds don’t always intersect peacefully, as illustrated in a thought-provoking newsletter over the weekend from Rally’s Rob Petrozzo. The essay, “The Problem with Purists” argued that purists keep hobbies alive… they protect history, standards, and nuance… but loving something doesn’t give anyone the right to gate-keep. Too many “purists” turn into jerks the moment newcomers arrive through a different door, whether for joy or investment. Per Petrozzo, growth doesn’t cheapen a category; it strengthens it. Collectors and investors need each other, and we’re happy to celebrate both.
Hey! Speaking of investors… Kalshi and StockX have teamed up to launch prediction markets tied directly to collectible prices, letting users bet on future average sale prices of Labubus, Pokémon cards, sneakers and more. The first contracts are already live, covering categories like top-traded brands during major retail moments and monthly averages for high-volume products. StockX is providing the sales data that powers these markets, framing the partnership as a natural extension of treating sneakers and collectibles like tradable assets. Are trading cards next? You’d need great data…
Hey! Speaking of great trading card data… eBay has launched a new in-app price guide for raw and graded cards, giving collectors instant comps by simply scanning a card with their phone. The tool pulls two years of eBay sales data, including Best Offer prices, refreshed every 24 hours. Users can switch between sold and active listings, view PSA population data, add items to a personal collection tracker, or list cards directly. It’s free, has no usage limits, and is currently in beta. Pricing data will also start surfacing directly on item pages in the coming weeks. What this means for existing data-focused apps in the hobby remains to be seen.
The NBA season is overflowing with breakout performances, but card markets tend to move on weekly consistency, not one-night explosions. Using Prizm Silver Rookie PSA 10s as the baseline: Tyrese Maxey’s leap makes his $350–$400 price still fair, Cade Cunningham’s return could reopen sub-$600 buy windows, Alperen Sengun’s rise to ~$275 feels early, and Scottie Barnes is the hobby’s biggest bargain at ~$100. Meanwhile, Topps Chrome Basketball sold out within minutes of going up for sale yesterday.
Rick Probstein’s new auction platform, snype, crashed during its first major round of closings after a system-wide glitch caused “snypes”, intended as last-second automated bids, to prematurely end auctions instead. Other listings froze entirely. The site was immediately taken offline and all auctions were canceled. Snype, which was still down at press-time, has no return timeline yet as the team investigates and rebuilds stability. I placed bids on a few lots during the opening weekend, winning one, and haven’t heard from snype about its status, but I’m assuming I won’t be getting the card.
Topps appears set to adopt Dutch auctions for new releases, mirroring Panini’s approach, and collectors (namely J.R. Fickle) aren’t thrilled. While marketed as “market pricing,” the preset floor undermines true price discovery and encourages FOMO spending. It risks undercutting hobby shops and rewards buyers who can overpay early. Many prefer Topps’ EQL system, which standardizes pricing and access. Dutch auctions mostly serve one purpose, per Fickle: squeezing extra dollars from impatient collectors.
Credit: Sotheby’s
Maurizio Cattelan’s infamous 18-karat gold toilet America sold at Sotheby’s for $12.1M (with buyer’s premium) after a single bid, barely clearing its melt value of roughly $9.9M. Consigned by Mets owner Steve Cohen, the piece hammered at its starting price of $10M with no guarantee in place, despite its notoriety as one of the past decade’s most polarizing artworks. This example is now the only surviving version after the second edition was stolen from Blenheim Palace in 2019. The New York Times reported that Ripley’s, the museum with those wax figures, was the winning bidder, and company brass is exploring “whether visitors may someday be allowed to use it.” (Believe it or not, that’s a real quote).
The Sotheby’s auction result sitting atop the, ahem, throne from this past weekend was Gustav Klimt’s Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer, which sold for $236.4M, becoming the second-priciest painting ever sold at auction. The piece came from Leonard Lauder’s collection, which also featured two Klimt landscapes that went for $86M and $68M. The sale helped propel a booming auction week expected to exceed $1.4B (yes, that’s a B), with strong results across Sotheby’s, Christie’s, and Phillips. Insider tip: If you own a Samsung Frame TV, you can “own” Klimt’s The Kiss for free.
Sony Pictures has picked up the screen rights to Labubu, aiming to develop a feature film and possibly a full franchise built around Pop Mart’s wildly popular blind-box figurines. The project is early with no talent attached, but the move signals confidence that Labubu’s white-hot momentum can translate to theaters. The brand exploded in the last year thanks to K-pop endorsements and celebrity sightings, fueling a booming secondary market. Sony’s bet hinges on Labubu still being a cultural draw by the time a film is ready… and on there being an actual story attached to the toy, beyond it being hyped up.